In 2026, there will be no new inductee in the pitching category at Cooperstown. However, both King Félix Hernández and Cole Hamels are getting ready for their potential Hall of Fame candidacies.
Fast forward a few years, and it’s almost a certainty. When Clayton Kershaw’s name appears on a Hall of Fame ballot, any voter with a sound judgment will undoubtedly mark him as a choice. The same goes for fellow greats Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
All three of these pitchers boast impressive credentials: each has won three Cy Young Awards, secured over 200 career wins, and captured multiple World Series titles. They’ve each struck out more than 3,000 batters and participated in at least eight All-Star Games. Their cases for induction into Cooperstown won’t be complicated by the nuances of their respective playing eras or intricate statistical analyses. It’s a straightforward decision that requires minimal contemplation.
Some writers adhere to a philosophy that if they have to ponder a candidate's worthiness, then they don't belong in the Hall of Fame. While this viewpoint is valid, most believe that every candidate warrants a thorough examination. Currently, there are 279 players enshrined in the Hall, and when crafting a case for any individual, every detail is significant.
On the upcoming Tuesday, the Hall of Fame will unveil the results of this year’s writers’ ballot. Unfortunately, it appears that no starting pitcher will achieve the requisite 75 percent approval for induction. Six starters are under review this year, including three returning candidates: Mark Buehrle, Félix Hernández, and Andy Pettitte, who collectively failed to garner even 60 percent of the votes last year. The three newcomers—Gio González, Cole Hamels, and Rick Porcello—are not seen as automatic selections either.
González and Porcello made it onto the ballot as a recognition of their commendable careers, yet they have not received any votes among the 174 public ballots tracked by Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker.
This marks Buehrle’s sixth time on the ballot, currently polling at just 23.5 percent. His remarkable consistency would be almost unimaginable in today’s game; he famously pitched 14 consecutive seasons with 200 innings or more. Despite his durability, Buehrle fell slightly short of being dominant, only appearing on Cy Young ballots once, in 2005, where he finished fifth.
Meanwhile, Pettitte, a postseason stalwart with a record of 256-153—an impressive 103 games over .500—is gaining traction during his eighth ballot appearance. Notably, 28 voters who previously declined to support him last year have now reconsidered, pushing Pettitte’s public voting percentage to 57.4.
However, voter percentages tend to decrease upon the full reveal of the results. Pettitte has faced scrutiny over his admission of using human growth hormone for injury recovery in 2002 and 2004, and he has never exceeded 27.9 percent in the voting process. He still has two attempts left before he exhausts his eligibility on the writers’ ballot.
Now, let’s turn our attention to Hamels and Hernández, two pitchers who essentially mirror one another in their careers. Both enjoyed 15 seasons in Major League Baseball, achieving remarkably similar statistics: Hamels with 422 starts, 163 wins, and a 3.43 ERA, while Hernández had 418 starts, 169 wins, and a 3.42 ERA. Hamels boasts 36 more strikeouts but also 38 fewer walks than Hernández.
Their post-career accolades differ somewhat. Hamels, a left-handed pitcher, earned an NLCS and World Series MVP title during his time with the Philadelphia Phillies, yet he never placed in the top three for Cy Young Award voting. Conversely, the right-handed Hernández, who spent his entire career with the Seattle Mariners, did not see postseason action but managed to win a Cy Young Award and finish as a runner-up twice.
Both Hamels and Hernández symbolize a transitional phase in baseball history, where the expectations of pitchers began to shift. In 2005, the year Hernández debuted, there were 50 pitchers who logged at least 200 innings in a season. By 2019, which marked the last full seasons for both of them, that number had dramatically decreased to just 15. Last season, only three pitchers achieved that milestone.
Cole Hamels celebrates after clinching the World Series title in 2008 with the Philadelphia Phillies, a moment captured by Chris O’Meara of the Associated Press.
A valuable statistic for assessing pitchers across different eras is ERA+, which adjusts for factors like ballparks and scoring contexts. The all-time ERA+ leaderboard showcases a mix of pitchers from various periods; notably, the sixth, seventh, and eighth spots belong to Jacob deGrom (currently active), Jim Devlin (who passed away in 1883), and Satchel Paige (who played in both the Negro Leagues and the American League).
Hamels holds an ERA+ of 123, while Hernández has an ERA+ of 117. This indicates that they performed approximately 23 and 17 percent better than the league average, respectively. However, this figure alone doesn't provide the complete picture, as many pitchers fall within that range. Some pitchers from this century, like Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina, have been inducted, while others like Cliff Lee and Carlos Zambrano have not.
The challenge facing voters—especially as they look beyond the clear-cut cases of Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, and Zack Greinke—is how to redefine the standards for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Hamels and Hernández were relatively durable in their careers, each completing eight seasons with 200 or more innings and finishing with approximately 2,700 innings pitched. Nonetheless, this total remains below the traditional Hall of Fame benchmark.
In fact, only three starting pitchers in the last century have been enshrined with fewer innings than Hernández, who pitched a total of 2,729 2/3 innings: Sandy Koufax, Lefty Gomez, and Dizzy Dean. Eventually, this trend must evolve. If Hernández's resume seems a bit thin, consider that no active pitcher under the age of 35 is within 1,000 innings of his total.
That said, it doesn’t imply that Hernández or Hamels should start drafting their acceptance speeches just yet. Historically, they might be better categorized among a group of exceptional pitchers who fall just short of Hall of Fame recognition, such as Ron Guidry, Tim Hudson, Jerry Koosman, Billy Pierce, and Bret Saberhagen.
There is certainly no disgrace in that classification. Yet, as time goes on, and as pitcher workloads continue to diminish, recent achievements and relative longevity will increasingly stand out. This is precisely why outstanding players receive a decade on the ballot: while their statistics remain constant, perceptions often shift.
